Why Trump's Third Term Could Be Closer Than You Think

President Donald J. Trump delivers his presidential inaugural address at the U.S. Capitol Building, Washington, D.C., Jan. 20, 2017. Photo courtesy of U.S. Marine Corps Lance Cpl. Cristian L. Ricardo. Public domain.

It's 2028. The ballots are being cast, the nation is holding its breath, and there's a familiar name on the ticket — Donald J. Trump as the Republican nominee.

But wait... wasn't he already elected twice? Can a U.S. president really serve a third term? This question, once reserved for constitutional scholars and political theorists, is now front and center in America's political discourse.

The Case for Trump Serving a Third Term

President Donald Trump and his supporters have not been subtle about their interest in extending his time in the White House. While Trump's remarks have often come off as off-the-cuff humor, some supporters have taken concrete steps to test the waters.

One such remark came recently with Trump saying, "It will be the greatest honor of my life to serve not once but twice — or three or four times," before quickly adding, "Nah, it will be to serve twice," as reported by POLITICO.

However, legal experts overwhelmingly agree that the Constitution sets clear barriers to a third term.

Amending the Constitution

Of course, the main obstacle to Trump serving a third term is the Constitution itself. In particular, the 22nd Amendment (ratified in 1951 in the wake of FDR's unprecedented four elections to the highest office) explicitly states: "No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice."

The exterior of the National Constitution Center displays the opening words of the United States Constitution. Photo courtesy of Jeffrey M. Vinocur under CC BY 2.5.

Representative Andy Ogles (R-TN), recently introduced a resolution to amend the Constitution to allow a president to serve three terms, arguing that Trump needs more time to accomplish his agenda and undo the Biden administration's actions. "President Trump's decisive leadership stands in stark contrast to the chaos, suffering, and economic decline Americans have endured over the past four years ... I am proposing an amendment to the Constitution to revise the limitations imposed by the 22nd Amendment on presidential terms. This amendment would allow President Trump to serve three terms, ensuring that we can sustain the bold leadership our nation so desperately needs," Congressman Andy Ogles said in a recent statement, as reported by Ogles.House.Gov.

The bill has not advanced at all in the chamber.

Exploiting Loopholes

Some of Trump's allies, like Steve Bannon, have speculated about a loophole in the 22nd Amendment. The amendment states that no one can be "elected" president more than twice, but it does not explicitly ban someone from serving more than two terms if they weren't elected.

In a speech at the New York Young Republican Club's 112th annual gala, Bannon said, "Donald John Trump is going to raise his hand on the King James Bible and take the oath of office, his third victory and his second term." Bannon continued, "Since it doesn't actually say consecutive, I don't know, maybe we do it again in '28? Are you guys down for that? Trump '28?” as reported by POLITICO.

Here's how it could play out: Trump runs as vice president in 2028 with a Republican ally like JD Vance at the top of the ticket. If they win, Vance could then resign, and Trump would assume the presidency — bypassing the two-term election limit. This strategy hinges on interpreting the 22nd Amendment's language literally and assuming the courts wouldn't block it.

Defying the Constitution

Then there's the most audacious scenario: Trump could simply run for a third term and dare the system to stop him.

This would ignite a legal firestorm, likely ending up in the Supreme Court. Despite Trump's history of challenging norms and legal boundaries — which leads some to believe it's not entirely out of the question — this is a case where constitutional law is firmly against him.

The Case Against Trump Serving a Third Term

For all the speculation, the legal barriers to a third term are steep. Here's why most legal experts agree Trump can't — and won't — serve a third term.

The Long Road to Amending

Any member of Congress can introduce an amendment but actually getting it to pass is another matter. Short of two-thirds of state legislatures calling for a constitutional convention, an amendment requires a two-thirds majority vote in both the House and Senate, followed by ratification from three-fourths of the states. Given the current climate of political polarization, this process is widely regarded as nearly impossible.

Legal Challenges Abound

Legal scholars argue that the language of the 22nd Amendment leaves no room for interpretation — two terms, period. Moreover, the 12th Amendment of the Constitution clarifies that anyone ineligible to run for President cannot run for Vice President. Furthermore, historical legal precedent does not support such an interpretation, and the Supreme Court would likely uphold the two-term limit. This renders the creative loophole argument pushed by Bannon and his allies moot.

Even Trump's allies in Congress, like Senator Mike Lee (R-UT), have dismissed the idea of a third term unless the Constitution is amended. "I haven't seen any wiggle room in it," Lee said according to NBC News, emphasizing that any effort to bypass this would likely fail in the courts.

Legal Challenges Would Be Swift and Strong

If Trump attempted to run for a third term through a loophole or outright defiance, legal challenges would flood the courts. The Supreme Court, despite its conservative lean, would face immense pressure to uphold the Constitution. While Trump has previously relied on the courts to back his claims, this could be a different ballgame entirely.

A Long Shot... Or Is It?

Trump's musings about a third term might be more about keeping his supporters energized and his critics on edge than a genuine attempt to stay in power beyond 2028. However, given his boundary-pushing track record, it may be hard to completely dismiss the idea. While the legal hurdles are high, the political drama is likely to continue — and that might be exactly what Trump wants.

References: No, Trump Cannot Run for Re-election Again in 2028 | Trump Jokes About Running for a Third Term in Speech to House Republicans | Constitutional Amendment to Allow Trump Third Term Introduced in the House | Rep. Ogles Proposes Amending the 22nd Amendment to Allow Trump to Serve a Third Term | Trump Really Could Find a Way to Seize Third Term: Experts | How Trump Could Snatch a Third Term — Despite the 22nd Amendment | Steve Bannon floats an unconstitutional candidate: Trump in 2028